Tuesday, 3 August 2010

10:27 BST - Options Equity Put/Call Ratio

Here's an updated chart of the CPCE. The last time I posted it, the 5 ma appeared to be forming a double bottom, but it had not yet moved above the 10ma. As of yesterday, we now have the 5ma above the 10ma and that double bottom, so far, has held:

CPCE Daily:

This might be taken as an early signal of a top in the market either being in or very close to being in. Remember that the signal doesn't necessarily catch the exact top or bottom and if these moving averages continue to struggle to stay above, or, in the case of the 10ma, get above, that blue dotted line, the risk of further upside in the market remains (see my post on 22 July).

I've added the McClellan Oscillator in the bottom window. Its diverging against the new price highs at the moment. It may perhaps be setting up a failed backtest of the upward sloping red trend line that it broke in the decline in the market into the end of July.  Its something to keep an eye on. 

If it does fail and the bearish divergence continues, that may provide another indication that the market may have topped or be very close to a top. 

If we're in one of the more bullish counts, then we'd expect to see the divergnce in the McClellan Oscillator work itself off and for the red trendline to be broken back above decisively. We'd also expect to see the 5 ma drop back down below that blue dotted line and the 10ma remain below it.