Well, it seems that it was right to be cautious as to whether or not we had made a top given that the market was not dropping with any meaning at the time I posted a possible count into a top (see here).
Still, the rally today was odd in that it wasn't very impulsive looking, but of course, there's still time for it to develop. However, there are various ways to account for the action, which I'll show in the charts below.
Remember that the Options listed below are the different ways to count the move down from 1219.80. There are 5 that I'm following and they are set out on the 60 min counts page.
On the chart of each Option I have labelled one of the 2 remaining Counts for the decline from 1131.23. Each of these Counts could apply to any one of the Options, though what they mean may differ depending on which Option you are looking at. Count 1 shows 5 waves down from 1131.23 complete at 1010.91 and we are retracing the whole of that decline, while Count 4 shows a (i), (ii), i, ii decline from 1131.23 to 1101.91 and we are only retracing the decline from 1082.60 which is the wave i start point.
Still, the rally today was odd in that it wasn't very impulsive looking, but of course, there's still time for it to develop. However, there are various ways to account for the action, which I'll show in the charts below.
Remember that the Options listed below are the different ways to count the move down from 1219.80. There are 5 that I'm following and they are set out on the 60 min counts page.
On the chart of each Option I have labelled one of the 2 remaining Counts for the decline from 1131.23. Each of these Counts could apply to any one of the Options, though what they mean may differ depending on which Option you are looking at. Count 1 shows 5 waves down from 1131.23 complete at 1010.91 and we are retracing the whole of that decline, while Count 4 shows a (i), (ii), i, ii decline from 1131.23 to 1101.91 and we are only retracing the decline from 1082.60 which is the wave i start point.
Here's how things stand after today:
Option 1 - Wave (ii) of [iii] topped at 1131.23
9 min chart:
I've applied Count 1 to the chart of this Option. It assumes that we completed 5 waves down from 1131.23 at the low of 1010.91. From that low, I've labelled a double zig zag count with the (C) wave of [Y] still in progress but possibly in its final throes.
I've shown the action today as part of an ending diagonal for the 5th wave of (C)
We filled the gap I mentioned yesterday and we're right in the middle of the significant area of price congestion that exists up to about 1085. That level would also be a .618 retracement, so may well be the target for the end of wave ii.
I've applied Count 1 to the chart of this Option. It assumes that we completed 5 waves down from 1131.23 at the low of 1010.91. From that low, I've labelled a double zig zag count with the (C) wave of [Y] still in progress but possibly in its final throes.
I've shown the action today as part of an ending diagonal for the 5th wave of (C)
We filled the gap I mentioned yesterday and we're right in the middle of the significant area of price congestion that exists up to about 1085. That level would also be a .618 retracement, so may well be the target for the end of wave ii.
Option 2 - Wave [ii] topped at 1131.23
9 min chart:
For the decline from 1131.23 to 1010.91, I've applied Count 1 to the chart of this Option also.
For the move off the 1010.91 low, I've also shown a double zig zag, but the [C] wave of the second zig zag is labelled differently. For the 5th wave of [C] I've assumed an ordinary impulse in is progress. (see the chart below showing an impulse wave from 1058.24). Its likely that there is still more upside to go on this, but the way I have labelled it for the moment means that if we take out 1072.89, its probably finished. However, it would probably be safer to wait for the low at 1069.54 to be taken out.
For the decline from 1131.23 to 1010.91, I've applied Count 1 to the chart of this Option also.
For the move off the 1010.91 low, I've also shown a double zig zag, but the [C] wave of the second zig zag is labelled differently. For the 5th wave of [C] I've assumed an ordinary impulse in is progress. (see the chart below showing an impulse wave from 1058.24). Its likely that there is still more upside to go on this, but the way I have labelled it for the moment means that if we take out 1072.89, its probably finished. However, it would probably be safer to wait for the low at 1069.54 to be taken out.
Option 3 - Wave [iv] of an ending diagonal completed at 1131.23
10 min chart:
I've also applied Count 1 to the chart of this Option, giving us 5 waves down from 1131.23 to 1010.91.
I've labelled this 5 wave decline as wave [v] of a leading diagonal down from 1219.80 and, therefore, minor wave 1. It places us now in minor wave 2. I've labelled the start of 5 waves up from the 1010.91 low, on the assumption that we will get a zig zag type move up for wave 2, since we would be retracing the whole decline from 1219.80, not just the drop from 1131.23.
I'm showing us currently in wave [3] of iii. Once wave [3] is complete, we'll retrace down in wave [4] and it will have to stay above the wave [1] high at 1042.50 for the count as labelled to remain valid.
The alternate labelling assumes that the 5 waves down from 1131.23 is only wave (a) of [v] and that we are now retracing back up in wave (b). The double zig zag count would apply to the (b) wave.
Remember, if there is further downside to come, we must stay above 999.83 for the leading diagonal count to remain valid.
I've labelled this 5 wave decline as wave [v] of a leading diagonal down from 1219.80 and, therefore, minor wave 1. It places us now in minor wave 2. I've labelled the start of 5 waves up from the 1010.91 low, on the assumption that we will get a zig zag type move up for wave 2, since we would be retracing the whole decline from 1219.80, not just the drop from 1131.23.
I'm showing us currently in wave [3] of iii. Once wave [3] is complete, we'll retrace down in wave [4] and it will have to stay above the wave [1] high at 1042.50 for the count as labelled to remain valid.
The alternate labelling assumes that the 5 waves down from 1131.23 is only wave (a) of [v] and that we are now retracing back up in wave (b). The double zig zag count would apply to the (b) wave.
Remember, if there is further downside to come, we must stay above 999.83 for the leading diagonal count to remain valid.
Option 4 - Wave [b] of minor Y within intermediate [X] topped at 1131.23
15 min chart:
I've applied Count 4 to the chart of this Option. It puts us in an extending 3rd wave down from 1131.23.
We've now retraced over 94.1% of wave i of (iii) - its still a valid 2nd wave, but its close to invalidating this count. Remember, the retracement can't exceed 1082.60 if this count is correct. If it does, it'll be likely that Count 1 is in operation (see chart of Option 1 above).
I've shown a slightly different labelling for wave (C) of [Y], making the whole of (C) an ending diagonal. However, I don't think its valid (so I haven't done a close up chart) since its difficult to count the 4th wave as a zig zag. Still, we'll see. If one of the other counts for (C) of [Y] is in effect (see the charts of Options 1 and 2 above) then the remaining upside which is likely on those counts may well lead to the invalidation of this Count.
I've applied Count 4 to the chart of this Option. It puts us in an extending 3rd wave down from 1131.23.
We've now retraced over 94.1% of wave i of (iii) - its still a valid 2nd wave, but its close to invalidating this count. Remember, the retracement can't exceed 1082.60 if this count is correct. If it does, it'll be likely that Count 1 is in operation (see chart of Option 1 above).
I've shown a slightly different labelling for wave (C) of [Y], making the whole of (C) an ending diagonal. However, I don't think its valid (so I haven't done a close up chart) since its difficult to count the 4th wave as a zig zag. Still, we'll see. If one of the other counts for (C) of [Y] is in effect (see the charts of Options 1 and 2 above) then the remaining upside which is likely on those counts may well lead to the invalidation of this Count.
Option 5 - Minor wave X within intermediate wave [X] topped at 1131.23. Now in minor Y down
9 min chart:
On the chart of this Option I've also applied Count 4, so the comments made in respect of invalidation on Option 4 also apply here.
I'm also showing a further alternative way to count the rally from 1010.91. Its a single zig zag, but different from the one I've shown previously in that we would have wave [C] starting from the low at 1018.33.
Again, there may well be more upside to come and that could invalidate this Count, in which case I'll switch it to Count 1 showing 5 waves down from 1131.23.
On the chart of this Option I've also applied Count 4, so the comments made in respect of invalidation on Option 4 also apply here.
I'm also showing a further alternative way to count the rally from 1010.91. Its a single zig zag, but different from the one I've shown previously in that we would have wave [C] starting from the low at 1018.33.
Again, there may well be more upside to come and that could invalidate this Count, in which case I'll switch it to Count 1 showing 5 waves down from 1131.23.
Here is the double zig zag count updated from yesterday, which is on the chart of Option 1:
Double zig zag:
And here is the impulse from 1058.24 which is on the chart of Option 2:
Have a great weekend!
