That was a wild ride! I don't have time to post all the charts of all the Options today (the Options are the different ways to count the move down from 1219.80 - there are 5 that I'm following and they are set out on the 60 min counts page) but here's how I think things look.
On the counts that imply the rally from the 1 July low is a corrective one (Options 1, 2, 4 and 5) there are a couple of ways to account for today's moves.
The first continues to proceed on the basis that we topped yesterday (with a truncated 5th) and we have since seen a very deep expanded flat correction:
SPX 1 min - topped at 1099.08:
Obviously, it won't take much to invalidate this count! It has to drop from the outset tomorrow or it will be invalidated.
The second possibility is that we are in the alternate double zig zag I posted earlier, with today's low being the [B] wave and the rally this afternoon being part of wave [C] to complete the second zig zag:
SPX 1 min - double zig zag still in progress:
This count would be invalidated if we take out the [B] wave low at 1080.53 without making a new high first.
On the count that places us in a 5 wave move off the 1 July low (Option 3), which would be part of a larger correction up, I labelled yesterday's high as wave (iii) of that advance and today's low may have been wave (iv):
Option 3 chart:
The retracement for wave (iv) was 23.6% of wave (iii). I've assumed it ended at today's low and that we are now in wave (v) of [a] up. It may be that wave (iv) is still in progress - if we don't make a new high in five waves, this possibility may be on the table.
So, there seems to be a likelihood of new highs for this rally from 1 July, but I won't dismiss the possibility of a top to a corrective move up at yesterday's high until its invalidated by taking out the 1099.08 level I've labelled as the top. If that's taken out then the bear case will be put on hold for a little while longer.
On the counts that imply the rally from the 1 July low is a corrective one (Options 1, 2, 4 and 5) there are a couple of ways to account for today's moves.
The first continues to proceed on the basis that we topped yesterday (with a truncated 5th) and we have since seen a very deep expanded flat correction:
SPX 1 min - topped at 1099.08:
Obviously, it won't take much to invalidate this count! It has to drop from the outset tomorrow or it will be invalidated.
The second possibility is that we are in the alternate double zig zag I posted earlier, with today's low being the [B] wave and the rally this afternoon being part of wave [C] to complete the second zig zag:
SPX 1 min - double zig zag still in progress:
This count would be invalidated if we take out the [B] wave low at 1080.53 without making a new high first.
On the count that places us in a 5 wave move off the 1 July low (Option 3), which would be part of a larger correction up, I labelled yesterday's high as wave (iii) of that advance and today's low may have been wave (iv):
Option 3 chart:
The retracement for wave (iv) was 23.6% of wave (iii). I've assumed it ended at today's low and that we are now in wave (v) of [a] up. It may be that wave (iv) is still in progress - if we don't make a new high in five waves, this possibility may be on the table.
So, there seems to be a likelihood of new highs for this rally from 1 July, but I won't dismiss the possibility of a top to a corrective move up at yesterday's high until its invalidated by taking out the 1099.08 level I've labelled as the top. If that's taken out then the bear case will be put on hold for a little while longer.
