Tuesday, 20 July 2010

11:24 BST - DAX Update

The Dax has been the more resilient of the major world indices over recent weeks, but it may be on the verge of playing catch up, if the bearish counts in the other markets are playing out.

Here's the daily chart showing a count that has us in wave [iii] of minor 1 down from the high at 6341.52. I've labelled the start of wave [iii] as waves i and ii of wave (i) of [iii], which is very bearish. It may be that the waves labelled i and ii should be (i) and (ii) - this will depend on how far the next decline, if it happens, takes us:

DAX daily chart:

Here's a close up of the decline from the high marked [ii] at 6330.81, updated from my post on 29 June:

Dax 15 min chart:

It does look like its on the way to forming a nice 5 waves down from the wave ii high for wave [1] of iii, but it does have a bit more to do to complete those 5 waves.

So, the bearish count for the Dax could be gaining momentum as the Dax leads the way down, at least for today. However, we can't dismiss the bullish posibilities here, so its still worth keeping an eye on this one in case its starts to lead the way back up rather than down.