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Monday 12 July 2010

11:13 BST - Dollar Update

From the dollar page which I updated this morning, this continues to be my preferred count:

Dollar Daily - Option 2B: minor 3 extending, currently in [iv] of 3:


This chart doesn't capture today's push up in the dollar since the potential ending diagonal that I posted on Thursday 8 July, but it is looking like we may have seen the end of a wave [iv] correction, if this count is correct (as pointed out on the dollar page, the drop from 7 June could just be the completion of the first leg of an intermediate wave (2) correction which has a lot more downside to go).

Here's the 60 min ichimoku chart:



Its looking like the beginnings of an uptrend on this timeframe, with price above the turning (blue) and standard (red) lines and above the cloud , the turning line above the standard line and the lagging line (turquoise) above the cloud as well as above prices of 26 periods ago.

If this is a sustainable move up, pullbacks in price should now find support at the turning and/or standard lines and the lagging line must stay above the price line.

The initial aim is to see the wave iv high at 84.826 taken out, with the (b) wave high folowing quickly after that. As mentioned, caution is still nevertheless required given the possibility that Option 2B (see the dollar page) is the correct count.

My count for the Euro fits well with my favoured count for the dollar. Here is the daily chart:

Euro Daily:



Obviously, it could just have easily completed minor 5 at its June low, as shown in my Option 2B for the dollar (see the dollar page) which is my next preferred count. However, at the moment, the retracement since the June low does look to me more like a wave [iv] within minor 3, but that can change quickly. So, caution would be required on the short side here.