On 9 July, I posted a count showing a possible end to the decline in the dollar with what looked like an ending diagonal. It ultimately turned out not to be the case, but as mentioned in my post on 15 July, there was still a profitable long play based on the thought that the low identified on 9 July at 83.622 was possibly the end of the decline.
Indeed, once the long play was over, there were several opportunities to the downside as well.
Here are two 60 min charts covering the period from the 83.622 low to Friday's close which show some very simple trades primarily using the 13 and 20 simple moving averages for signals:
Dollar 60 min - trades Part 1:
Of course, it won't always work out like this, but for the period covered by the two charts, using this very simple system, there was only one small loss - on the trade identified at point 5 which was stopped out at point 6.
I think the important point to make here is that elliott wave counts evolve as price action develops. Its important not to get stuck in one line of thought and to be open to all possibiities. Once a possible end to a count is identified, its important to be aware of what price needs to do to increase its odds of it being the correct count and what price shouldn't be doing if the count is correct. Other TA methods can then be deployed to identify entry and exit points as well as giving indications of when the count in question may be in jeopardy so that trading ideas can be adjusted accordingly.
