Wednesday, 9 June 2010

Markets on 9 June 2010

21:15 Update:

Not to forget the bullish counts which are still valid. The first one has us in a (1),(2),1,2 up for [A] of y of (ii) (invalidated if we drop below 1043.94) or, more likely, perhaps in a possible double zig zag or double three (if the move to today's high was a flat), with the [X] wave (or it could be a [B] wave if we call the three waves to today's high wave [A] instead of [W]) being today's drop. Here's a 5 min chart:

The next one has us in wave [c] down to complete a double zig zag from the 1219.80 high (so its aligned with the bearish count for the time being). Here's a 20 min chart of this count:

21:00 Update:

Interesting if today's low marks the end of 5 waves down from today's high - I have a diagonal starting it off and a diagonal ending it on this 1 min chart.

20:32 Update:

Here's a possible count for this drop, other than the nested 1,2's in the earlier 1 min chart:

19:23 Update:

Well, that (1),(2),1,2,i,ii may be working out, but bear in mind that it could be a wave x in a double zz.

Anyway, here's one of the bullish counts I have going. It shows we need and [A]-[B]-[C] to complete wave y of (ii) before we can start wave (iii) down. It'll need a re-think if we take out the wave (1) of [A] high at 1057.80. (Ignore that stray green 1 in the middle of wave (3)!)

18:45 Update:

Have we completed wave ii on the bearish count? Here's a 1 min chart showing what I referred to below as to the placement of wave (4), making the count complete at today's current high:

If we take out what is the wave 1 high in the  5 min chart below, 1068.36, then this drop isn't wave 4 and we may well be in this bearish (1), (2), 1,2,i, ii down. If we stay above that level and make new highs, it will count as a double zz as things stand presently.

18:10 Update:

I wonder if BKX may be leading the way down. I have it completing a triple zig zag up back in April and since then, I see a [i], [ii], (i), (ii) down, similar to the bearish counts on the main indices.

Here's the 60 min chart:

Obviously, if we take out the wave [1] low withouth first making a new low, then we're probably still in wave (ii) which would likely be forming an expanded flat, or something completely different is happening.

17:15 Update:

Here's the updated 5 min chart:

This shows it requiring another leg up to complete (5) of [C], but if I put wave (4) where the 2 is, it counts complete. The lack of force in the move down from the high suggests that its corrective and we should see another new high today, but we'll see.

17:05 Update:

It does look like a nice 5 waves up from the [B] wave low in the chart below (maybe one more move up required though). That would complete an [A]-[B]-[C]] correction for wave ii. Its retraced 50%, which is sufficient for a second wave. Obviously, however, its possible for this to morph into a double zig zag. Just something to be on the look out for.

 15:29 Update:

The main bearish count on SPX also has us in wave ii of (iii) of [iii]. It stopped at first resistance of 1069 this morning but looks like it will probably push higher, to somewhere between 1069 and 1075. But second waves can retrace higher and it may morph into a more complex correction. On the other hand, if this is wave ii within (iii) of [iii], this first resistance level could prove to be it for wave ii.

Here's the 5 min chart with fib levels and resistance marked:

 All the moderately and very bullish counts remain intact for the moment, so there's potential for a larger rally also.

 14:08 Update:

Here's a 5 min chart of ES showing the possible count, putting us in wave ii of (iii);

Here's a possible count on the UK's FTSE 100. The main count is that we are in minute wave [iii] of minor 1 down from the April highs. Here it is on the 60 min chart:

 And here it is close up on the 15 min chart:

If we saw a wave (ii) top in early June, the drop from there counts OK as a diagonal for wave [1] or i of wave (iii) of [iii]. If this is right, we may already have seen waves (A) and (B) of wave [2]. We'd now be in wave (C) of [2]. Wave (C) would be 1.382 x wave (A) at arounf 51115 which is also the area of resistance at the high of wave (2) within the diagonal.

Another possibility is that we are still in wave (ii) of [iii] and that this possible diagonal was a wave [C] within wave x of (ii) (an expanded flat) and we'll now see a rally to much higher levels, possibly beyond the high currently marked as wave (ii) as we rally in wave y.

Of course, if the alternative count on the 60 min chart is playing out, putting us in minute wave [ii] up, we have similar , if not greater, rally potential - in that case, the diagonal will have been a (c ) wave in an expanded flat correction.