Friday, 18 June 2010

22:13 BST - SPX Update

Well, that was a whole lot of nothing after the initial rally and decline back down.

It still leaves alot of options on the table. Looking at the action since the 1118.74 high here are some ways to label it in relation to the 5 counts that I have on the larger time frames:

1) Today's high at 1121.01 was the end of a 5th wave. 

This has different implications for the 5 counts, but on counts 1, 3 and 4 it would be very bearish (well, only near term bearish on count 4). 

On count 1 it would be the end of a wave (ii) of [iii] correction, meaning we would now be starting wave [iii] down.

On count 3, it would be the end of wave [iv] in a leading diagonal and we would now be starting wave [v] down.

On count 4, it would be the end of a [b] wave in a zig zag wave Y so we would now be starting wave [c] down (this one might not be as bearish as the other two, but it has the potential to be).

On count 2, it might be the end of the first wave within wave (c) of [ii], so near term, we'd expect a wave ii correction down before further rallies. However, its possible it could be the whole of wave (c) of [ii] and, therefore, very bearish. Its only retraced just over 38.2% of wave [i], but its at resistance and if we really are back in a big bear market, wave [ii] may only be capable of a 38.2% retrace.

On count 5 it would be the end of wave [5] of iii within (i) of [iii] up.

Here are a couple of ways to count the action as the end of a 5th wave at today's high:

5th wave up complete, wave [1] down complete, wave [2] still in progress:

SPX 2 min chart:

(Its possible that today's high on this count was just [1] of v up. That would be ruled out if we take out the low marked iv at 1105.87).

5th wave up complete, waves [1], [2] and (1) complete, currently in wave (2) of [3]:

SPX 1 min chart:

This would be invaildated above 1118.53. In that case, wave [2] may still be in progress.

(Its possible on this count that today's high was only wave [1] of v up. That would be invalidated with a drop below 1106.85)

2) Today's high was simply part of a 5th wave. 

This would not be appropriate for count 3 since it would likely mean that wave [iv] of the assumed leading diagonal would be too large and create parallel instead of converging lines, therefore invalidating the pattern.

For counts 1 and 4, its feasible, though in both cases the 1173.57 high would be the limit for any further rally.

For count 2, it would be fine, especially if we are in a sub-minuette rally for (c) rather than a micro degree rally.

For count 5, it would be perfectly reasonable and in keeping with the very bullish nature of that count.

Here are a couple of ways to count the action on this basis:

A [1],[2],(1),(2) up:

SPX 1 min chart:

This would be invalidated below 1113.93.

A leading diagonal wave [1] up to today's high, possibly still in a wave [2] correction:

SPX 1 min chart:

On this count, we might see a deeper wave [2] correction, in keeping with what is supposed to happen after a diagonal completes. 

So, as with the longer time frames, even on these smaller time frames, there remain various option. we just have to watch the important levels. for each of the possibilities.  If we completed 5 waves up at today's high, then 1121.01 shouldn't be taken out if we are in counts 1,3 or 4 or, on count 2, if it represents the end of wave (c) of [ii]. If we're in a [1],[2],(1),(2) up, we can't drop below 1113.93. If we completed a leading diagonal at today's high for wave [1] of v up, we can't take out 1106.85 (other levels are mentioned above).

Have a good weekend!