Monday, 14 June 2010

19:02 BST SPX Update

Here's a possible count for the remaining Option 1 bearish count which has us in wave (ii) of [iii]:

60 min chart showing the base channel for the [i],[ii] move which is currently contaiing the rally:

 And here's a close up on a 4 min chart from the wave x low:

 Its possible to count a complete complex correction from the 1040.78 low. Having said that, we have the unclosed gap between 1107 and 1115 just above, so there is always a risk that the count shown will put in another high before it is done. That would mean we're currently still in wave (4) of [C] at the moment. Really, I'd be looking at taking out the wave [B] of y low as possible confirmation of a wave (ii) top. Until them, there remains the draw of the gap above.  Having said that, you can see on the 60 min chart that the MACD histogram has been making lower lows on each higher high in price since the x wave low at 1042.17, suggesting that the rally is tiring.