Thursday, 17 June 2010

17:09 BST - SPX Update

In last night's update I mentioned the possibility that even on the bearish counts (Options 1,3 and (in the near term) 4), the leading diagonal shown during the session might only have been the end of a 3rd wave.

So far, that remains on the table. I think today's action coupled with what happened at the end of yesterday, probably counts more naturally as a 3 wave move for a 4th wave. As an impulse, it would only be partially formed and has much to do to prove itself as an impulse underway.

Here are two charts showing two ways to count from the diagonal (ignore the degree of the labels - they are just rough charts not related to any particular one of the various options). 

1 min chart - 4th wave count:

2 min chart - start of an impulse wave down:

On the bearish options 1 and 4, the 4th wave possibility only gets negated below 1083.20 on the way I have them labelled. On Option 3 its negated below 1101.20.

At the moment, on Options 2 and 5, it looks like a perfect 4th wave.