Tuesday, 29 June 2010

12:48 BST - Dollar Update

The overnight action in the dollar is a bit more encouraging if  you're looking for another rally to take out the high of 7 June.

Here's the 60 min chart:

I've labelled a sub dividing impulse wave up for wave (iii), but its still in its very early stages and there is no way of knowing at the moment whether the rally from the low of 85.215 is a new impulse that will take us above the 7 june high, or whether we are still in a corrective wave down, with this rally being part of the (x) or (b) wave.

At least now we have a couple more levels to watch that should not be taken out at this stage if this is wave (iii) up. 85.789 is the first level to watch since i'm looking for a wave iv of 3 of (3) and wave iv should not take out that high. If the current high is actually wave 5 and (3), then we'd expect now to see a wave (4). That shouldn't take out the high of wave (1), so that level, 85.474, is the next level I'm watching. After that, there's the low at 85.215 which obviously shouldn't be breached at this stage of we are in wave (iii).

For anyone interested, here's the 60 min ichimoku chart:

The picture here, too, has improved overnight, with all the components above the cloud. I still want to see the blue outline of the cloud get above the red outline and for the cloud to start sloping upwards. 

Of course, it could all fall apart, so what I want to see on any pull back in price, is for the lagging line to stay above the price line and for price to find support from the turning line (blue) and/or the standard line (red). A failure on any of these fronts may be an early warning that all is not well with this latest rally.