16:15 BST - VIX Update

The vix is certainly doing what the bears would want it to do, as outlined in my post on 23rd June.

Here's an updated 60 min ichimikou chart showing how the picture has become more bullish (bearish for the market) as those early signs of a trend change have solidified:

Vix 60 min ichimoku:

Pullbacks are fine and to be expected, but in an uptrend, I wouldn't expect pullbacks in the vix to cause the lagging line (green) to drop below the price line. I would also expect the first lines of support for price, namely the turning and standard lines, to provide good support. I wouldn't want to rely on support from the cloud this early on, but  if price drops that low, for me, it will be important to see the lagging line stay above price.

Let's see how it goes.

 

16:15 BST - VIX Update

The 60 min chart of the vix is in a similar position to the dollar chart I showed on Monday, giving signs of a potential change in the 60 min trend:

Vix 60 min chart:

As explained on the chart, we need to see price get above the cloud and the lagging line to follow. On any pullback in price, the lagging line should stay above prices from 26 periods ago, otherwise, the risk is that this little rally was nothing more than a retracement in a continuing downtrend - see the area I have circled on the chart.